Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 32.649675 35.190978 37.945549 41.173174 44.877645 49.028823 54.079028
2025-04-27 29.422684 32.934376 36.994943 42.113224 48.507273 56.398270 67.159127
2025-05-04 27.263671 31.277991 36.123890 42.551266 51.097419 62.472602 79.559154
2025-05-11 25.357433 29.604449 34.893099 42.179550 52.348712 66.744993 90.268609
2025-05-18 23.736990 28.088231 33.639444 41.523455 52.974598 70.066608 100.215784
2025-05-25 22.340248 26.722284 32.423388 40.725904 53.199770 72.703242 109.628104
2025-06-01 21.181412 25.571772 31.381294 40.030417 53.426556 75.294580 119.652899
2025-06-08 20.054133 24.384910 30.191725 38.988866 52.952431 76.574887 127.442555
2025-06-15 19.746790 24.278656 30.481334 40.141234 56.095139 84.745591 153.334982
2025-06-22 19.085108 23.639599 29.960230 39.991851 57.027578 88.978290 172.025568
2025-06-29 18.342813 22.846805 29.163049 39.333584 56.982908 91.251160 186.701875
2025-07-06 17.540026 21.931131 28.133981 38.223627 56.003673 91.403674 195.302714
2025-07-13 17.339954 21.880088 28.405775 39.283871 59.192789 101.441624 244.376016
2025-07-20 17.092840 21.748183 28.546679 40.141102 62.142243 111.898348 308.913929
2025-07-27 16.755897 21.465071 28.432949 40.545446 64.252758 121.001322 383.832120
2025-08-03 16.275049 20.945795 27.919024 40.201979 64.772910 126.072068 448.091531
2025-08-10 15.770253 20.369889 27.285541 39.595401 64.655777 129.346391 509.846485
2025-08-17 15.270035 19.782312 26.605925 38.857404 64.166405 131.426886 570.377695
2025-08-24 14.819849 19.254813 25.999606 38.213275 63.814545 133.893307 646.491206
2025-08-31 14.328920 18.649874 25.244049 37.247623 62.636370 133.437692 692.613317
2025-09-07 14.273409 18.707129 25.566474 38.315944 66.284817 150.591262 1119.524505
2025-09-14 13.986336 18.396311 25.267133 38.177540 67.054036 157.927834 1512.498050
2025-09-21 13.625682 17.960011 24.741430 37.567356 66.594712 160.423866 1850.748547